The Fed Is Meeting Today. Should You Float Or Lock Your Mortgage Rate?

The Federal Open Market Committee holds a one-day meeting today, its fifth scheduled meeting of the year, and sixth overall since January.
The FOMC is the government's monetary policy-setting arm and the group's primary tool for that purpose is an interest rate called the Fed Funds Rate.
The Fed Funds Rate is the prescribed rate at which banks borrow money from each other and, since December 16, 2008, the Federal Reserve has voted to keep the benchmark rate within a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
It's the lowest Fed Funds Rate in history.
Because the Fed Funds Rate is near zero, it's accommodative of economic growth, spurring businesses and consumers to borrow money on the cheap. This, in turn, fosters economic growth within a U.S. economy that is somewhat tentative and facing headwinds.
The Fed has said over and again that it will hold the Fed Funds Rate "exceptionally low" for as long as conditions warrant.  It's expect that the Fed will reiterate that message in today's post-meeting press release.
However, just because the Fed Funds Rate won't be changing today, that doesn't mean that mortgage rates won't.  Mortgage rates are not set by the Federal Reserve; open markets make mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates in Colorado tend to be volatile when the Fed is meeting. This is because the Fed's press release highlights strengths and weaknesses in the economy and, depending on how Wall Street views those remarks, bond markets can undulate and mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds.
When Ben Bernanke & Co. speak, Wall Street listens.
The Fed's press release today will be dissected and analyzed.  Talk of higher-than-expected inflation, or better-than-expected growth should have a negative effect on rates. Talk of an economic slowdown may help rates to fall.
Either way, we can't be certain what the Fed will say or do this afternoon so if you're floating a rate right now and wondering whether the time is right to lock, the safe choice is to lock before 2:15 PM ET today.

June's Jobs Report Wasn't As Bad As The Headlines (And How You Can Take Advantage)

In June, for the first time since December 2009, the U.S. workforce shrank.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy shed 125,000 jobs last month even as the Unemployment Rate dropped to 9.5 percent. The drop in the Unemployment Rate is being attributed to fewer Americans looking for work.
At first glance, the jobs report looks weak but a deeper look shows something different.
Excluding the 225,000 government Census workers that recently left the workforce, the total number of employed persons actually grew by 83,000 in June. That's 50,000 more working Americans as compared to May.
And, since the start of the year, the U.S. workforce has grown by 857,000.
Jobs growth is closely tied to economic growth because more working Americans means more disposable income which, in turn, stokes consumer spending. Job growth is better than job loss.
Consumer spending makes up the majority of the U.S. economy so as consumer spending grows, investor mentality tends to shifts toward "return on principal" (i.e. stock markets) from "safety of principal" (i.e. bond markets).
A move like this is often bad for home affordability because falling demand for bonds is tied to higher mortgage rates. In addition, with the growing number of Americans earning a paycheck, demand for homes is likely to increase, thereby helping to push home prices higher.
Overall, therefore, the jobs report should be bad for rate shoppers and home buyers in Denver. Except the markets aren't reacting that way. For now, mortgage rates are slightly improved since the jobs report's release.
Perhaps Wall Street is watching the wrong figures, but don't let that be your loss. If you're shopping for a mortgage, a home, or both, now may be your best time to make a move- while rates are still low, with home prices down- before traders change their tune.
Because when markets change, it'll likely happen fast.

The 1 Force That Can Really Change A Mortgage Rate

All day, every day, conforming and FHA mortgage rates in Colorado are in flux.  Rates move in response to hundreds of factors which exact varying levels of influence.
Among the biggest influences on mortgage rates is inflation.  When inflation is unexpectedly high, mortgage rates tend to rise quickly. Conversely, when inflation is unexpectedly low, rates tend to fall quickly.
But what is inflation?
By definition, inflation is when a currency loses its value; when what used to cost $1.00 now costs $1.10.
As consumers, we recognize inflation by the items we buy on a daily basis becoming more expensive.  However, it's not that goods are more expensive -- it's that the dollars we're using to buy them have become worth less.
With respect to mortgage rates, this is a big deal because mortgage rates are directly related to the price of a special type of bond called a mortgage-backed bond.
On Wall Street, mortgage-backed bonds are priced, bought, and sold in U.S. dollars so as inflation renders those dollars less valuable, so it does to mortgage-backed bonds as well. It's a chain reaction by which mortgage bonds lose value, leading investors sell them, causing bond prices to fall on the excess supply.
And, because mortgage rates move opposite of bond prices, as inflation takes hold, mortgage rates rise.
Lately, inflation has been exceptionally low. The Federal Reserve acknowledged as much in its last statement to the markets, and available data backs that position.  This, after predictions that inflation would be "runaway" in 2010.
The Cost of Living is up just modestly this year and it's helping mortgage rates stay low. And, so long as it lasts, the cost of owning a home in Belle Creek will remain relatively inexpensive.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (June 23, 2010 Edition)

Today, in its first meeting in 5 weeks, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged.
The Fed Fund Rate remains within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
In its press release, the FOMC said that, since April, "the economic recovery is proceeding" and that the jobs market "is improving gradually". Business spending "has risen significantly", too, with the exception of commercial real estate.
Today's statement is the 8th straight press release in which the Fed shows optimism for the U.S. economy, dating back to June 2009.  Since that time, the Fed has terminated all of the programs it created to support the economy through the economic crisis.
The recession is widely believed to be over.
And, although the Fed's statement acknowledged economic growth, it did highlight lingering threats, too.

1. Employers are still reluctant to hire new workers
2. European debt concerns could spill-over to the U.S.
3. Bank lending is contracting

Also, as expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent "for an extended period", citing that "inflation has trended lower" recently.
Mortgage market reaction has been positive thus far. Mortgage rates in Colorado are slightly improved post-FOMC.
The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is August 10, 2010.

Conforming Loan Costs Are Rising, Says Freddie Mac

Mortgage rates may be dropping, but mortgage costs are not.
According to Freddie Mac, the average required discount points on a conforming mortgage rate are higher by 0.1 percent since early-May.
A "discount point" is prepaid mortgage interest; an up-front fee paid by a borrower in exchange for a lower mortgage rate. In most cases, discount points are tax-deductible.
Tax-deductible or not, though, rising costs are rising costs and Freddie Mac glosses over it.  In its weekly press release, the government group offers mortgage rate comparisons to weeks prior, but doesn't do the same for required points.
The press fails to mention discount points entirely.
An increase of 1/10 percent in discount points costs homebuyers and refinancing households in Henderson an extra $100 per $100,000 borrowed.
The hike reminds us that there's more to a mortgage than just its rate -- costs matter, too.  And if you've only been watching the headlines, you would have missed how costs are rising.